Economia de baixo carbono: oportunidades para a indústria sucroalcooleira do Estado de Mato Grosso

Abstract

The transportation sector, which represents the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) in Brazil, is the sector in which society expects the most actions to reduce this impact. In this sense, the crucial role of the sugarcane industry deserves highlighting, as it uses renewable inputs in its production, promotes the reduction of fossil fuel consumption in flex-fuel vehicles, contributing to decrease GHG emissions and driving the decarbonization of the economic activity. Additionally, this industry enables the diversification of raw materials in remote areas, generating employment and income. Through programs like RENOVABIO, it enhances competitiveness and profitability in the distribution and resale chain of biofuels. However, in the current context of high ethanol production, concerns about decarbonizing the economy and the need for sustainable production, sugarcane industries face challenges that require changes in the assumptions guiding ethanol production. These assumptions include: a) The expectation that a low-carbon economy would increase demand for biofuels, especially ethanol; b) The possibility of increased demand for ethanol production in the coming years; c) The confidence that the growing demand for ethanol would ensure prices high enough to cover production costs and justify sector investments. With the aim of addressing these uncertainties, this study proposes investigating ethanol market projection scenarios, seeking to obtain insights to support the decision-making process of Brazilian sugarcane industries. In this context, it is crucial to establish a strategic planning methodology that assists sugarcane companies in identifying potential future scenarios for ethanol production. The goal of this qualifying project is to develop a methodology that supports the strategic planning of the sugarcane industries in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, aiming to position and align their operations according to the dynamics and challenges of the biofuels market in Brazil in the long term. The proposed methodology aims to identify potential future scenarios for ethanol production, considering the trade-off between different demands for biofuels in the light-duty vehicle sector. The research employs qualitative and quantitative analyses, including critical analysis of the literature and analysis of non-trending ethanol price fluctuations. The proposed methodology supports sugarcane industries in building strategies based on qualitative and quantitative analyses, encompassing a scenario analysis at the national, regional, and municipal levels. This approach provides insights that assist in demand projection, production optimization, product diversification, and investment planning, contributing to the sustainability and competitiveness of the sector. The methodology proposed in this thesis offers valuable insights for strategic decision-making, allowing companies to adapt, be competitive, and achieve continuous growth in a dynamic and challenging environment. With effective organizational management, these companies will be prepared to face challenges and ensure long-term success. Through this study, it is expected that the sugarcane sector can lead the decarbonization of the economy, minimizing environmental impact, and aiding in the construction of a more sustainable future.